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“Despite dropping $30,500 in the first half of the week, Wednesday night’s escalation of the Iranian conflict caused Spark30S (Atlantic) LNG freight rates to rise $59,250 in the last two days, now at $181,750 per day and marking a $14,250 increase week-on-week,” Spark’s data lead, Qasim Afghan, told LNG Prime on Friday.
He said Spark25S (Pacific) rates have seen reduced gains in the last two days, resulting in a week-on-week decrease of $15,000 to $141,750 per day.
“Uncertainty”
“Just as market volatility began to settle, and the new status quo was somewhat understood, we are faced with fresh events that once again bring uncertainty to the LNG market,” Fearnley LNG said in its weekly LNG report on Thursday.
The Oslo-based advisory and brokering firm noted that QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan Industrial City was hit by Iranian missile strikes on Wednesday and early Thursday.
“This came in response to Iran’s South Pars gas field being targeted by Israeli attacks, which the US have since denied knowledge of or involvement in,” it said.
State-owned LNG giant QatarEnergy expects the damage to its Ras Laffan complex caused by missile strikes to cost about $20 billion a year in lost revenue and to take up to five years to repair, impacting supply to markets in Europe and Asia.
“Prior to this escalation, the week had seen a lack of liquidity in the market, especially in the West. With fresh fixtures few and far between, market levels proved hard to call from all sides and bid/offer spreads remained wide, ultimately finding support in the low-mid $100k’s,” Fearnley LNG said.
“East of Suez, the market has been bolstered by continued Omani flows and excess cargoes out of Australia and Malaysia. While levels have trended lower overall, TDE and 2-stroke rates remain healthy, and there is even life for some steamers finding spot employment,” it said.
“Although the new events do not alter the immediate supply of either cargoes or ships, expected spikes in delivered gas prices and potential arbitrage plays may cause a scramble for tonnage and a kneejerk bullishness on spot rates in the coming days,” Fearnley LNG said.
Demand for delivery slots into NW-Europe
In Europe, the SparkNWE DES LNG remained flat compared to last week.
“The SparkNWE front month DES LNG price for April delivery, assessed as a basis to the TTF, remained relatively steady at TTF – $0.35 for NW-Europe front month delivery, indicating continued demand for delivery slots into NW-Europe,” Afghan said.
“The outright NWE DES LNG price is up $3.698 to $20.521/MMBtu, driven by the TTF rally seen in the last 48 hours. The NWE DES LNG price for April delivery has now more than doubled since the start of the conflict, and front-month DES LNG prices are now at their highest since January 2023. These gains are seen across the forward curve as well, with DES LNG prices for May26 (M+2) to Mar27 (M+12) increasing approximately +$4 (+25 percent),” he said.
Afghan said that the JKM-TTF Jun 2026 spread has increased 0.325 to $1.750/MMBtu, reaching a weekly high of $3.00 on Thursday morning.
“Continuing escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as this week’s reports of long-term damage to the Ras Laffan terminal, has strengthened market sentiment that the conflict in the Middle East will have long-term effects on global LNG market dynamics. The JKM-TTF forward curve has seen its strongest week-on-week gains thus far, with Q3 2026 up 0.575 and Q4 2026 up 0.450, and now priced at $1.242 and $0.633 respectively,” he said.
“Similarly, Cal27 is up 0.220 to $0.660, and Cal28 is up 0.150 to $0.575, with much of those gains coming yesterday after the strike on Ras Laffan and its ensuing long-term implications for global LNG supply. Previous to Thursday, the Cal28 spread had only increased 0.075 since the start of the conflict,” Afghan said.
TTF gains
TTF May 2026 prices rose $3.600 (+10.040 euros) week-on-week, and are currently at $20.470/MMBtu (€60.280/MWh).
“Similar to the JKM-TTF, the TTF forward curve saw strong gains across the forward curve this week, with both Q3 & Q4 2026 up approx. +$3.8 (+24 percent) and now priced at $20.332 (€59.657/MWh) and $20.171 (€58.984/MWh) respectively,” Afggan said.
“Both Cal27 and Cal28 TTF prices recorded their largest weekly gains so far – Cal27 is up 26 percent to $15.966/MMBtu (€46.378/MWh), and Cal28 up 19 percent to $11.000/MMBtu (€31.638/MWh), with the majority of those gains again coming yesterday after the strike on Ras Laffan. With the JKM-TTF premium still increasing despite this TTF rally, this implies that gains in the JKM are outpacing those seen on the TTF across the forward curve,” he said.
“The prompt (M+1) arb to Asia via COGH remained volatile this week, opening up to Asia midweek but is now shut and pointing to Europe, pricing at -$0.287/MMBtu. The forward curve remains closed and largely pointing to Europe,” Afghan said.
“The prompt (M+1) arb to Asia via COGH remains open and firmly pointing to Asia, priced at +$0.647/MMBtu. The forward curve remains largely open to Asia,” he said.
Gas storage
Data by Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) shows that volumes in gas storages in the EU dropped from last week and were 28.66 percent full on March 19, 2026.
Gas storages were 29.18 percent full on March 11, 2026, and 34.19 percent full on March 19, 2025.
JKM jumps
In Asia, JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia in May 2026 settled at $22.350/MMBtu on Thursday.
Last week, JKM for April settled at 16.185/MMBtu on Friday, March 13.
Front-month JKM rose to 19.275/MMBtu on Monday, 19.410/MMBtu on Tuesday, and 20.175/MMBtu on Wednesday.