Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are forecasted to increase by 4-4.5 percent to 416 million tonnes this year, according to a new report by the Gas Exporting Countries Forum.
Doha-based GECF said in its new annual gas market report that this forecast refers to LNG volumes delivered to importing countries, excluding deliveries via ISO containers, and it does not reflect the LNG volumes loaded at the LNG export facility.
In 2022, global LNG exports increased by 5 percent (18 Mt) y-o-y to 399 Mt, GECF said.
“In 2023, assuming LNG reloads remain at the same level as 2022; global LNG exports
including LNG reloads are forecasted to grow by 4-4.5 percent (16-18 Mt) y-o-y to 416 Mt,” it said.
Also, this forecast for 2023 represents a slight slowdown in the pace of growth in LNG exports from the previous year, the report said.
New liquefaction facilities
Non-GECF countries are forecasted to account for bulk incremental LNG exports with an additional 11 Mt, while LNG exports from GECF member countries are forecasted to rise by 6 Mt.
GECF says that start-up and ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in Congo, Indonesia, Mexico, Mozambique, Russia, and the US would contribute some 10-11 Mt this year.
Other factors that will contribute to the growth of volumes include ramp up of the Hammerfest LNG facility in Norway (1.5-2 Mt), restart of the Freeport LNG facility in the US (5-6 Mt), higher feedgas availability in Algeria and Trinidad and Tobago (1-2 Mt), as well as lower maintenance activity at Prelude FLNG in Australia (1-2 Mt).
2024
In 2024, also assuming LNG reloads remain at the same level as 2023, the pace of growth in global LNG exports is forecasted to accelerate slightly by 4.5-5 percent (18-20 Mt) y-o-y to 435 Mt, GECF said.
Both GECF member countries and non-GECF countries are forecasted to boost global LNG exports with additional 10 Mt and 9 Mt of LNG, respectively, it said.