EIA boosts Henry Hub price forecast

This is 11 percent higher than in the previous forecast.

EIA said below-normal temperatures in both January and February led to increased consumption of natural gas to meet space heating demand, which resulted in more natural gas being withdrawn from underground storage than estimated in the October STEO.

In January and February combined, 33 percent more natural gas was withdrawn from storage than EIA had expected in the October forecast.

“In our current forecast, we expect natural gas inventories in working gas storage to be about 10 percent lower than the five-year average at the end of the winter season (November–March) on March 31,” the agency said.

“Because of the stronger-than-expected storage withdrawals in January and February, we now expect there will be less natural gas in storage for the rest of this year, which has led us to raise our natural gas price forecast,” EIA said.

US LNG exports rise

EIA expects the Henry Hub natural gas price to average $4.50/MMBtu in 2026 as global demand for LNG grows.

This is up 8 percent from last month.

EIA noted that two new LNG export facilities—Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 and Corpus Christi Stage 3—started LNG production in December 2024.

“We estimate that exports from Plaquemines LNG Phase 1 averaged 1.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in February, indicating that the facility operated at 85 percent of its nominal capacity that month. On February 27, the facility received approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to begin liquefaction activities to the ninth and final block of Phase 1,” it said.

EIA said the start-up timing over the next two years of two additional projects—Golden Pass and Plaquemines LNG Phase 2—is a “source of uncertainty in our forecast.”

“We expect China’s imposition of tariffs on US LNG that were enacted in early February to have little to no effect on US LNG exports because destination-flexible US LNG cargoes can be routed to other global markets,” EIA said.

The US is the world’s largest exporter of LNG.

Currently, the US exports LNG via Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals, Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemnes LNG facilities, Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal, the Freeport LNG facility, the Cove Point LNG facility, and the Elba Island terminal.