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This is 6.4 percent higher than $2.95/MMBtu in the December 2024 STEO.
EIA said in the new outlook that the Henry Hub spot price “generally rises over the next two years.”
“We expect the spot price of natural gas at Henry Hub to average $3.10 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025 and $4.00/MMBtu in 2026, up from an historically low average of around $2.20/MMBtu in 2024,” the agency said.
EIA said it expects wholesale natural gas prices to increase because growth in demand—led by liquefied natural gas exports—outpaces production growth and keeps inventories during the next two years at or below their previous five-year averages during most of the forecast period.
LNG exports
Over the next two years, EIA expects that natural gas demand in the US will generally grow by more than natural gas supply.
In 2025, the agency forecasts supply of natural gas, including both production and imports, will rise by 1.4 Bcf/d in 2025, while demand for natural gas, including domestic consumption and exports, rises by 3.2 Bcf/d.
EIA said exports are the leading source of natural gas demand growth in its forecast.
The agency expects exports of natural gas by pipeline and as LNG to increase by 2.9 Bcf/d in 2025, with most of the increase coming from LNG exports.
Also, LNG exports are expected to grow by 2.1 Bcf/d in 2026 to reach an average of 16.2 Bcf/d, the agency said.
The US is the world’s largest exporter of LNG.
Currently, the US exports LNG via Cheniere’s Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi terminals, Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass facility, Sempra Infrastructure’s Cameron LNG terminal, the Freeport LNG facility, the Cove Point LNG facility, and the Elba Island terminal.
In addition, Venture Global sent the first commissioning cargo from its Plaquemines plant on December 27, 2024, and this shipment was recently delivered to Germany’s Wilhelmshaven.
Besides this shipment, Venture Global shipped the second commissioning cargo from its Plaquemines plant earlier this month.
US LNG exporting giant Cheniere also started producing LNG at the first train of the Corpus Christi Stage 3 expansion project in Texas.
Cheniere has yet to ship the first LNG cargo produced at the expansion project.
QatarEnergy and ExxonMobil also expect to produce the first cargo at the first train of their Golden Pass LNG export terminal in Texas late this year or in 2026.