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UK-based LNG giant Shell said in its newest report that a total of 422 million tonnes of LNG was traded in 2025 and this was expected to increase “significantly” in 2026.
However, severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has shut in around one-fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply since the conflict started, pushing up prices on the spot market and adversely affecting some countries in Asia, the company said.
Shell noted that the ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants, and slower Asian imports of LNG have partially offset the impact of reduced supply from the Middle East.
As a result, total LNG trade in 2026 could be similar to last year if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal this summer, before returning to growth in 2027, Shell said.
Shell said in a report in March that global demand for LNG is expected to increase from 422 mtpa in 2025 to between 610 mtpa and 780 mtpa by 2050, or by around 45-85 percent.
Shell extended the forecast range to 2050 in the new report, named LNG portfolio strategic spotlight.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cederic Cremers, president of integrated gas at Shell.
“While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong, and LNG will continue to be a stabilizing force in the global energy system,” he said.
More resilient market
Although spot prices of LNG in Asia increased to more than $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) at the peak of the Middle East crisis, they remained significantly lower than in 2022 when gas supplies were disrupted following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, reflecting the greater resilience of the LNG market now, Shell said.
With long-term supply agreements accounting for around two-thirds of total LNG trade, the average price that buyers paid for LNG in May was around $11-12 per MMBtu, compared to $7-11 in January before the conflict began, Shell said.
Supply growth
About 180 million tonnes of annual new supply is forecast to enter the market by 2030, improving the availability and affordability of gas and opening up demand in new markets, Shell said.
However, the ability to benefit from new supply will depend on the availability of infrastructure in importing countries, including regasification capacity and pipeline connectivity, especially in South and Southeast Asia.
Forecasts show that those regions will account for around 40 percent of global LNG imports by 2050 to meet rapidly growing demand for energy with lower emissions than coal. In more mature Asian markets such as Japan, data centers are emerging as a new source of power demand, Shell said.
Emerging segments of demand are also growing rapidly. According to forecasts, LNG bunkering will grow sevenfold to 27 million tonnes by 2035, more than the amount of LNG imported by India last year, Shell said.
Shell noted that LNG will continue to have a “vital role” to deliver energy security to Europe, to balance intermittent renewables as domestic gas production declines.
To meet the growing demand, “significant” additional investment will be needed in new LNG liquefaction plants through the 2030s and 2040s, with around 200 million tonnes a year of new supply needed, in addition to projects already under construction, Shell said.
The company noted that its LNG Outlook is now in its 10th year.
Since its first publication in 2017, global LNG trade has increased by around 60 percent, from 264 million to 428 million tonnes, while China’s LNG imports have risen by about 250 percent, according to Shell.
The number of LNG-importing countries has grown from 36 to 49, while the number of LNG-fuelled ships has increased from 77 to over 800, Shell said.