India’s natural gas demand is forecast to increase by nearly 60 percent by 2030, doubling the country’s need for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, according to a new report by the International Energy Agency.
The report shows the country’s gas consumption is set to reach 103 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually by the end of the decade.
Following over a decade of slow growth and periodic declines, India’s natural gas demand increased by more than 10 percent in both 2023 and 2024, indicating an inflection point, the agency said.
While total gas consumption in 2023 was only marginally higher than 2011 levels, three key factors are now converging to drive substantial growth: rapid infrastructure expansion, recovering domestic production, and an expected easing of global gas market conditions, the IEA said.
New phase of growth
“India’s gas market is entering a new phase of growth, supported by significant infrastructure development and clear policy direction,” said IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori.
“The prospect of higher gas demand in India coincides with an expected wave of new global LNG supply. However, it will require careful planning and market coordination to ensure supply security and to help gas to compete in a price-sensitive market,” Sadamori said.
India’s domestic gas production, which met 50 percent of demand in 2023, is projected to grow gradually, reaching just under 38 bcm by 2030.
This would put it around 8 percent above 2023 levels. The limited growth in domestic supply means India’s LNG imports will need to more than double to around 65 bcm a year by 2030 to meet rising demand, the IEA said.
India currently imports LNG via eight facilities with a combined capacity of about 52.7 million tonnes per year.
These include Petronet LNG’s Dahej and Kochi terminals, Shell’s Hazira terminal, the Dabhol LNG, Ennore LNG, Mundra LNG, and Dhamra LNG terminal.
Also, the newest LNG import terminal is HPCL’s 5 mtpa Chhara LNG import terminal in India’s Gujarat, which just launched commercial operations.
Comparable to gas consumption in South America
The IEA said India is looking to increase the share of gas in its energy mix and the report identifies potential for even higher growth under an accelerated scenario, where targeted policy measures could push total demand to approximately 120 bcm by 2030 – comparable to the current gas consumption of South America.
This scenario would require additional policy support to drive higher utilization of gas-fired power plants, faster adoption of LNG in heavy-duty transport, and more rapid expansion of city gas infrastructure.
Looking ahead, the report emphasizes the need for strategic planning in LNG procurement and import infrastructure.
As legacy contracts expire, India faces a widening gap between contracted supply and projected demand after 2028, potentially increasing exposure to spot market volatility unless new long-term contracts are secured in the coming years, the IEA said.