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In the first trading session since the US and Israel launched air strikes against Iran on Saturday, Brent crude was more than 8 percent higher at $78.72 per barrel.
At the Dutch TTF hub, April futures traded above 39 euros ($45.76) per megawatt-hour, rising more than 22 percent.
JKM, the price for LNG cargoes delivered to Northeast Asia in March 2026, rose to $13.133/MMBtu on Monday, according to Platts, part of S&P Global Energy.
Spark Commodities also said that Atlantic LNG shipping rates rose on Monday.
Spark30S (Atlantic) increased $18,750 to $61,500 per day on Monday.
Strait of Hormuz
Kpler said in a report that the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s single most critical energy chokepoint, is not formally closed.
According to Kpler, its vessel tracking shows limited traffic continuing – primarily Iranian and Chinese-flagged ships – but commercial operators, major oil companies, and insurers have effectively withdrawn from the corridor.
Insurance premiums had already reached six-year highs ahead of the strikes, it said.
“Any meaningful closure – or even a sustained de facto closure driven by insurance withdrawal – would trigger supply shocks across multiple commodity classes simultaneously,” it said.
Fearnley LNG said in a report that over 150 crude and LNG tankers are reported clustered outside Hormuz and surrounding Gulf waters.
“Many owners have instructed LNG carriers to avoid or stand by outside high-risk areas around Hormuz, distorting schedules and tightening prompt vessel availability,” it said.
Reports suggest that Japan’s NYK and MOL, both with large LNG fleets, have suspended operations via the Strait.
LNG Prime contacted NYK and MOL to comment on the matter, but we did not receive a response by the time this article was published.
Qatari LNG volumes
We also contacted Qatari LNG shipper Nakilat, which transports volumes from the QatarEnergy-operated giant Ras Laffan LNG complex, but we have not yet received a response.
Qatar accounts for roughly 20 percent of global supply, all of which transits the Strait, Fearnley LNG noted.
Most of these volumes are heading to Asia, but some also land in European countries.
“Qatar’s position as a transit-dependent LNG exporter creates structural vulnerability,” Fearnley LNG said.
Volumes from Adnoc’s Das Island LNG plant are also transferring the Strait.
Wood Mackenzie said in a separate report that a halt to LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz would be just as disruptive to global gas and LNG markets as to oil markets.
“Around 81 Mt (110 bcm) of LNG transited the Strait in 2025 – primarily from Qatar – accounting for nearly 20 percent of global LNG supply. While most of these volumes are destined for Asian markets, the repercussions would be felt worldwide,” it said.
According to Wood Mackenzie, disruptions to LNG flows “could dramatically tighten the global market and reignite competition between Asia and Europe for available cargoes.”
“More than two-thirds of the way through the northern hemisphere winter, European storage levels are below seasonal norms and around 10 percent lower than at the same point last year, following a cold spell in January,” it said.
Moreover, Fearnley LNG said the JKM-TTF spread (the Asia-Europe LNG price differential) is expected to “widen as Asian buyers compete for alternative supply.”
“US LNG export infrastructure is already operating near capacity, limiting the ability of American exporters to meaningfully fill the gap,” it said.
